While the dollar and the euro have lost their weight in the Russian economy, in the context of the current global situation, Russians continue to keep their savings in dollars.
Analysts are divided over this paradoxical situation, as some believe that saving in foreign currencies can be a way to protect against inflation and fluctuations in the ruble while others warn of the risks associated with this practice.
According to the Bank of Russia, the value of foreign currencies held by Russian families reached the equivalent of 8.721 billion rubles in January 2024, compared to 6.868 billion rubles the previous year.
With the exception of the revaluation of currencies, their volume, on the contrary, decreases. In December 2023, it decreased by 8.1 billion rubles, while the decrease for the whole of 2023 reached 81.6 billion rubles, the Russian banking sector regulator explained in the latest “Household Sector Savings Index.”
The volume of Russian loans in foreign currency also fell, for the first time since the start of the statistical series of the Central Bank of Russia, to below 50 billion rubles. In December 2023, the number dropped to 47.4 billion in ruble equivalent. The population’s debt to banks in foreign currencies also decreased between January and November 2023 to 12 percent.
The share of foreign currency liquidity in Russians' total savings was independently estimated at about 35 percent at the end of 2023. This is a figure lower than the historical minimum of 2022 (38 percent), but higher than the long-term average of 33 percent.
“Although official statistics do not reveal the exact structure of citizens’ foreign currency savings, it can be assumed that a large part of these savings consists of dollars and euros, which are... They are considered the most common reserve currencies.
Alexander Potavin, an analyst at FG Venam, one of the largest investment groups in Russia, believes that the decline in cash savings in foreign currencies indicates that these assets have become less accessible to the population.
“Firstly, the Russian financial system is no longer officially supplied with new currencies, while cash flows abroad remain very stable,” he said. “Secondly, over the past two years, outbound tourism from Russia has declined significantly, which means that Russians do not need to buy dollars or euros.” cash Money".
The decrease in banks' offers to place deposits in foreign currencies also plays an important role, as does restrictions on the export of currencies outside the Russian Federation.
Denis Astafyev, founder of the investment company Sharespro, believes that many Russians still believe that it is safe to keep their dollar savings, knowing that the demand for the American currency is largely linked to its position on the global stage.
According to him, "fear of a sharp decline in the value of the ruble in the event of default and inflation" fuels Russian households' interest in foreign currencies such as the dollar.
But Potavin warns that saving in foreign currencies is not without risks, pointing out that one of the main risks is the cessation of dollar exchange operations on the Moscow Stock Exchange, if the stock exchange is targeted by international sanctions.
For Rousayev, keeping money in the currencies of "unfriendly" countries represents a danger in itself. “It is impossible to predict the sanctions that may be imposed in the future, so this type of savings is always risky,” stressing the need to diversify savings in foreign currencies to reduce the risk of financial losses.
Despite the current economic restrictions, it is still difficult for Russians to get rid of this habit, which is not new. In fact, it dates back to the 1990s, when dollars hidden under the bed served as insurance against the instability of the ruble exchange rate and the lack of reliability of banks.
0 Comments