Opinion polls predict that the far right will strengthen its position in the European Parliament as a result of the elections scheduled for next June, giving it greater influence in shaping continental politics, although the decisive balance will remain in the hands of the traditional forces.
Some 370 million people in the 27 member states of the Union were invited to cast their ballots between June 6 and June 9 to elect 720 representatives to the European Parliament.
While opinion polls show that far-right parties will improve their position, the traditional forces in the European Parliament, namely the center-right European People's Party, the left-wing Socialists and Democrats, and the centrist Renew Europe group, are expected to remain in the lead. group.
"The radical and populist forces on the right, some of which are extremist ... will make progress, but it will not be a massive wave," says Pascale Joanin, director general of the Robert Schuman Foundation.
These forces in the Parliament are divided into two groups: the "European Conservatives and Reformists" group and the "Identity and Democracy" group, which includes the French National Rally and the Alternative for Germany party.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who is nominated for a second term and belongs to the right-wing European People's Party, the largest bloc in the parliament, ruled out cooperation with the Identity and Democracy group, which is accused of being an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
But it left the way open for alliances with the European Conservatives and Reformists group, led by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, which includes far-right parties such as Spain's Vox and Frenchman Eric Zemmour's Recovery.
The German official said at the end of April that this "will depend on the composition of the Parliament and who will be in which group," causing discontent among the Social Democrats and the Greens.
Meloni, who announced her candidacy for the European elections at the head of the list of her far-right party Fratelli d'Italia (Brothers of Italy), wants to form "a majority in Europe that unites the forces of the right, with the aim of sending the left into the ranks of the opposition".
But for now, the EPP's main allies remain the Socialists and Democrats and Renew Europe (Renew, center).
Joanin believes: "Today, according to the opinion polls, there is no stable coalition other than the one that is currently in power.
Polls suggest that the European People's Party will remain the main political force in the Parliament, followed by the Social Democratic Party, despite the expected losses for these two political groups.
The game is to find out who will take the third place, which is currently occupied by the "Renew Europe" group, whose popularity, according to polls, is declining and which is threatened by the rise of the "European Conservatives and Reformists" and "Identity and Democracy".
The analyst expects the alliance of the European People's Party, Socialists and Democrats and Renew Europe to remain in the majority.
But according to the results that the Fratelli d'Italia party will record, Meloni "will try to obtain positions and influence issues that concern her greatly, such as immigration, and influence discussions by saying: 'I have a lot of representatives, so if you want the votes of my representatives on this issue, you have to do it like this. .
The two experts of the Jacques Delors European Research Institute, Nathalie Braque and Onig Marais, recently stated that the current coalition "is expected to continue to dominate the decision-making process after the elections", but "the strengthening of the ranks of the nationalist and conservative right (...) could increase the pace of the right-wing alliances it has formed". The European People's Party and the European Conservatives and Reformists.
In order to guarantee a sufficient majority, the two groups will have to obtain the support of the "Renew Europe" or "Identity and Democracy" groups, which, according to the expert, is not yet guaranteed.
They pointed out that there has been a recent rapprochement between right-wing groups on certain issues, such as the rejection or softening of some provisions of the European "Green Charter", which has been criticized for the alleged burden it imposes on businesses and families.
The co-leader of the Green Coalition in the Parliament, Terje Reintke, says that the rise of the radical right "will make it more difficult to get a majority in favor of climate protection or social concerns, or to take a clear position in the face of authoritarian governments.
However, the hypothesis of a merger between the "European Conservatives and Reformists" and the "Identity and Democracy" groups seems unlikely, as the differences between the two groups are great, especially with regard to Ukraine, Russia and the United States, and it remains to be seen which group will join the ruling Hungarian Fidesz party led by Viktor Orban, who has remained close to Moscow despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The political balances resulting from the European elections will determine the distribution of "senior positions," that is, positions at the top of the European Union institutions, especially the Commission, the European Council, and the Parliament.
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